Confidence in the Queensland property industry has fallen as concerns grow that the resources boom is slowing, according to the latest Property Council of Australia-ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey.
The survey reveals erosion in Queensland industry sentiment for the September quarter, says Queensland Executive Director of the Property Council of Australia, Kathy Mac Dermott.
Sentiment for Queensland respondents moved from 127 in the June quarter to 113 in the September quarter. A score of 100 is considered neutral.
The survey polled more than 3100 professionals from the property and construction sector in all states and territories for their forward-looking views.
“This recent decline in confidence comes on the back of three consecutive quarters of rising sentiment,” Ms Mac Dermott says.
“The results highlight Queenslanders’ concerns that the rapid expansion of the resources sector may be now slowing.”
“As the mining and energy sector takes a ‘breather’ and returns to a more sustainable level of business, there is the risk that anticipated demand generated by the mining boom will be wound back – particularly in the office leasing market.”
Queensland was not alone in its bearish outlook.
“During the quarter all mainland states recorded a weakening in confidence; Queensland has retained its position as the third most confident, behind the Northern Territory and Western Australia,” Ms Mac Dermott says.
“The nation’s overall confidence index fell 7 points to 106 while Queensland’s positive sentiment dropped 14 points down to 113.”
“Although still positive, Queensland respondents’ expectations for forward work and staffing levels over the next 12 months have declined.”
Despite varied economic performance across Queensland’s key industries of mining and tourism, and regions driven by exposure to these industries, the Survey continues to show a broadly positive view of Queensland’s property market.
ANZ Head of Property Research, Paul Braddick, says the outlook for Queensland remained positive, although with areas of vulnerability.
“While the outlook for the Queensland property market continues to be weighed down by patches of economic weakness, largely driven by weak inbound tourism and retail spending, the broadly positive outlook - led by major mining and energy project spending - should continue to shape property industry confidence at the state level through the remainder of 2012,” Mr Braddick says.
“With the exception of retail and tourism property, the Survey results for Queensland show expectations of continued capital growth in commercial property in the next year, while residential annual price growth expectations remain largely in balance.”
Ms Mac Dermott says the Survey also shows that, significantly, more than 30 percent of respondents either agree or strongly agree that the Queensland State Government is doing a good job planning and managing growth.
“Queensland and Western Australia were the only states to positively rate their government – an encouraging review of the new Queensland Government so soon after its 100-day milestone,” she says.
“This response (a significant improvement on last quarter’s survey of 10.3 percent) sends a strong message to Government that its commitment to planning reform is being recognised by industry and represents a critical issue for the property sector.”
“The challenge now for Government is to continue its support of the property sector throughout the next 100 days and in the State Budget.”
“The Budget must maintain the momentum that has been established over the past three months. The Government must capitalise on the opportunity to send investors a clear signal that Queensland is on track to restore its competitiveness with other states.”
“It is imperative that Queensland’s engine room- the property industry - is given the focus it needs to help restore the state’s economic fortunes.”
Kathy Mac Dermott, Property Council Queensland Executive Director
Ph: 0427 243 986
Paul Braddick, ANZ Head of Property Research
Ph: 03 8655 3022