Imagine it’s 1970. The black and white telly is tuned to Brian Henderson’s Bandstand.
You’re tucking into a hearty beef with black bean sauce from the local Chinese, while swigging a sparkling Porphyry Pearl.
Daddy Cool, the latest Aussie sensation, is belting out Eagle Rock when there’s a news flash (weirdly, Brian Henderson is also the presenter).
Australia’s population is 12.6 million.
The Federal Treasury forecasts Australia’s population will grow by 78 percent over the next 40 years!
That’s an extra 9.8 million people. Nearly four million of them will arrive from overseas.
We’ll need to build 1.6 million flats and 4.1 million houses.
There’ll be more suburbs than tie-dye shirts.
All up, we’ll have to find and fork out $3.1 trillion to fund the infrastructure needed to service this bigger Australia.
The laid back Aussie might have freaked but, as we now know, the nation did the job in a canter.
Yes, there’s more traffic congestion and maybe we’re morphing into a nation of H.R. Pufnstuf look-a-likes.
But, on the flip side living standards have risen sharply.
Household purchasing power rose 41 percent (in real terms) for low income groups during the past decade – the figure was 45 percent for middle income households.
Household wealth per capita for all Australians has doubled in just 20 years.
We’re also living a decade longer and there’s 2200 less annual road deaths – a 60 percent drop.
There’s not a survey of world trendiness that doesn’t include a clutch of Aussie cities in their top 10 rankings.
Australia now pulses with fun, culture, mojo ... and it was all underwritten by economic growth.
Above all, the nation enjoyed its longest ever run of economic prosperity – no recession for 19 years, and counting. All of which means loads of jobs and opportunity.
Contrast that with the rest of the ‘advanced’ world economies, which are still limping through the GFC and its aftershocks.
The anti-growth brigade now wants to jam down the stop button – some want to press rewind.
They say a big Australia is a bad Australia ... it’s a planet-destroying Australia.
Memo to critics: property investors deplore unsustainable growth.
We champion planned cities, not accidental ones.
Nevertheless, anti-growth rhetoric is rising to a clamour, aided by some ex-business leaders who claim we can achieve “prosperity without growth”.
Do we really believe we can’t match the grit and guile and smarts of previous generations?
Australia needs long-term, linked-up urban and regional growth strategies. We need to synchronise infrastructure roll-out with community needs. In short, we need better nationwide planning, with modernised tax and regulatory systems to match
Community prosperity will suffer unless the business world makes a more convincing case for sustainable growth.
In 1970, there were 7.5 workers for everyone aged 65 years or more. That figure has dropped by a third to five workers per retiree in 2010. Even at current rates of growth, this ratio is set to plummet by a further 46 percent over the next 40 years, leaving a society with only 2.7 workers for every retiree.
We’ll need massive productivity growth and improvements in competitiveness to avoid the not so genteel decline of some Western economies.
Next month, I’ll talk more about the Property Council’s new five year strategy: Powerhouse 3D.
A core feature is our plan to unveil the case for growth.
Given the huge strategic importance of this issue, world quality thinking is required – in short, a think tank.
In doing so, we’ll pioneer honest and frank conversations with the Australian community to better explain the benefits of managed growth and the downsides of stagnation.
The precise model and role of the proposed think tank is being explored for the Property Council board by former national president, Greg Paramor.
The so-called logic of low growth leads to less affluence and opportunity for everyone. We need to get that message out now. We can do so with a clearer plan for balancing social and environmental goals with economic growth.
Otherwise, imagine it’s 2050: the Jetsons are a reality except there’s just one kid, no dog (too expensive) and mortgages are worth more than homes.
The evening news in 2050 will be chock full of Australians bemoaning “Why didn’t you tell us low growth meant higher taxes?”
And let’s remember, our national song is “Advance Australia Fair”: advance, not retreat.
Peter Verwer |
Thursday, 7 October 2010 12:01 AM |
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