Confidence in Queensland’s property industry has suffered a big fall to land at a 12-month low, amid increasing concerns that the resources boom has passed its peak, according to the latest Property Council of Australia-ANZ Property Industry Confidence Survey.
The December quarter results reveal the gloss has worn off across the country’s resource-driven states but Queensland’s fall in confidence was the most dramatic, Queensland Executive Director of the Property Council of Australia, Kathy Mac Dermott says.
The most recent survey sees Queensland sentiment plummet from 113 to 96 on the confidence index. A score of 100 is considered neutral.
More than 3500 professionals from the property and construction sector in all states and territories were polled for their forward-looking views.
“This is unfamiliar territory for the industry in Queensland as confidence shifts into negative territory and below the national average for the first time in over 12 months,” Ms Mac Dermott says.
“These results reflect the industry’s unease about the future of the resources boom in Queensland, and nationally.”
“It is also possible that concerns about the impact of State Government staff cuts, particularly on demand for commercial property, are also dampening confidence.”
“The results show forward work schedules and staffing expectations are in decline, while Queensland’s 12-month economic growth forecast has dropped into the negative.”
“Queensland is the most extreme case, but we are not alone in this bearish outlook. Similar results are reflected across the historically strong resource-dependent states.”
ANZ Head of Property Research, Paul Braddick, says the result is the first time Queensland has reported negative confidence since the Survey began.
"This result likely reflects Queensland’s economic dependence on a weakening coal mining sector and the impact of the delivery of a conservative state budget in September," Mr Braddick says.
"In addition, regions driven by exposure to inbound international tourism (i.e. Far North Queensland, the Gold Coast) are continuing to feel pressure from the elevated Australian dollar."
"The outlook for the Queensland property market and economy appears vulnerable. The Survey results show the net balance of Queensland respondents expect state economic growth to slow in the year ahead and negative capital growth across the office, retail and tourism property sectors."
One bright spot was the outlook for house price growth, with Queensland recording a shift in sentiment from 91 to 101 on the index, Ms Mac Dermott says.
“The Property Council’s 3 Keys to Unlock Queensland’s Engine Room campaign calls for reform of Queensland’s out-dated planning and development assessment processes, a review into our inefficient taxation system and state investment in critical infrastructure.”
“Since the state election in March the Government has delivered a suite of important planning reforms.”
“However this quarter’s results show that these reforms alone are not enough to prime the property industry to deliver for the state.”
“The Property Council will soon be launching a focus on the second key – taxation - and calling for a holistic state tax review aimed at delivering a competitive tax system that attracts local, interstate and international investment.”
Visit the website www.qldengineroom.com.au to find out more about the ‘3 keys’ and read the facts about the contribution of the property industry to Queensland’s economy.
Kathy Mac Dermott, Property Council Queensland Executive Director
Ph: 0427 243 986
Paul Braddick, ANZ Head of Property Research
Ph: 03 8655 3022